Wednesday, June 26, 2024
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The Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) has released its mid-year report for its Asia Pacific Visitor Forecast covering the years 2024-2026, confirming an upward trend in international visitor arrivals (IVAs) across the region for 2024. This report supports earlier estimates. Significant annual growth in IVAs is predicted to surpass pre-pandemic levels by 2024 under the mild scenario and by 2025 under the moderate scenario. In contrast, the critical scenario suggests that IVA will still lag 2019 figures by 31% in 2024 and 13% by 2026.
Today, PATA also announced the release of 39 detailed reports on individual Asia Pacific destinations, as part of the 2024-2026 Destination Forecast Series supported by Visa. These reports include the latest insights from Euromonitor International and Visa.
Recovery rates vary across regions and sub-regions within Asia Pacific, but IVA in Asia, the Americas and the Pacific is expected to surpass 2019 figures in 2024 under milder conditions. This upward trend is expected to continue through 2025 and 2026.
International Visitor Arrivals (IVAs) in Asia Pacific under different scenarios from 2019 to 2026:
| year | Historical IVA (in millions) | Relaxed scenario IVAs (millions) | Medium view IVAs (millions) | Critical scenario IVAs (millions) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 682.67 | |||
| 2020 | 141.06 | |||
| 2021 | 136.75 | |||
| 2022 | 253.60 | |||
| 2023* | 503.51 | 503.51 | 471.53 | 593.48 |
| 2024* | is 740.97 | is 699.56 | 611.08 | |
| 2025* | 845.12 | is 761.84 | 548.11 | |
| 2026* | 909.98 |
“The dire situation forecast reminds us that while things are positive right now, with growth projections generally bullish, risks remain,” commented. PATA CEO Noor Ahmad Hameed. “Geopolitical tensions, climate change impacts and economic uncertainty prove to be sources of constraints for Asia Pacific tourism growth, highlighting the critical need for continued efforts to create innovative solutions that can effectively address such challenges.”
Asia Pacific IVA recovery rates from 2024 to 2026 under various scenarios:
| year | Mild View Recovery Rate (%) | Median view recovery rate (%) | Severe case recovery rate (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 108.5% | 89.5% | 69.1% |
| 2025 | 123.8% | 102.5% | 80.3% |
| 2026 | 133.3% | 111.6% | 86.9% |
Under the moderate scenario for 2024, several sub-regions are expected to experience significant IVA growth rates, with Micronesia, South America and Southeast Asia seeing increases of 77.8%, 47.0% and 36.0% respectively. In terms of sheer volume, Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia and North America are expected to lead with significant increases in IVA.
Growth in IVAs from 2023 to 2024 is largely driven by source markets in Northeast Asia, particularly China, Macao (CHN), and Korea (ROK), contributing millions of additional IVAs. During the period 2023 to 2026, Northeast Asia remains dominant, with the USA being the only source market outside the sub-region to top the list by IVA contribution.
Recovery rates of international visitor arrivals (IVAs) in different Asia Pacific regions from 2024 to 2026 under different scenarios:
| territory | year | Mild View (%) | Medium view (%) | Severe scenario (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| America | 2024 | 108.7% | 98.0% | 73.1% |
| 2025 | 123.9% | 123.1% | 94.1% | |
| 2026 | 131.9% | 131.9% | 94.1% | |
| Asia | 2024 | 100.2% | 86.6% | 63.6% |
| 2025 | 121.6% | 100.2% | 77.2% | |
| 2026 | 135.8% | 119.6% | 85.0% | |
| Pacific | 2024 | 110.3% | 96.9% | 71.9% |
| 2025 | 130.9% | 110.3% | 83.6% | |
| 2026 | 132.6% | 119.6% | 84.1% | |
| Asia Pacific | 2024 | 108.5% | 89.5% | 69.3% |
| 2025 | 123.8% | 102.5% | 80.3% | |
| 2026 | 133.3% | 111.6% | 86.9% |
Overall, an additional 258.3 million IVAs are forecast for the Asia Pacific region from 2023 to 2026, with 60% originating from Northeast Asia.
PATA has also published individual reports for each of the 39 destinations, which study additional details such as source regions, seasonality and changes in air capacity.
Mr. Hamid expressed optimism about the region’s path towards development despite potential challenges, stressing the importance of focusing on sustainable and responsible tourism practices to enhance the quality of tourism experiences and promote environmental protection and community engagement.
The reports provide a comprehensive overview of the number of international visitor arrivals expected by destination and region from 2024 to 2026, highlighting emerging opportunities in the post-Covid landscape. They also cover economic and market trends, including PEST analysis, and explore changes in traveler behavior and consumer spending.
These detailed forecasts and insights are now available on the PATA website and were further discussed in a recent webinar featuring experts from Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Euromonitor International and Visa, providing in-depth analysis into the future of tourism in the Asia Pacific.